It was SRO at Chris Anderson’s presentation on “the long tail,” the subject of a 2004 article in Wired magazine (where Anderson is the editor in chief) and now the title of a new book, subtitled “Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More.”  Why big crowds at a session that was really about modern economics?  Because it’s important and fascinating theory with implications for all libraries.
The long tail is the portion of the market that is niche-driven, not hit-driven.  For those of you who are visual learners, it looks like this:

Here are a few observations made by Anderson:

• The 20th century was a time during which our shared culture was driven by “hits.”  That is, more than 70% of American households watched the TV program “I Love Lucy” at the same time on a given evening in the 1950′s.  Today, the biggest hit on TV is “CSI” which is viewed by just a bit over 10% of households.  Obviously, this is because we have more choices in television than we did in the 50′s.  More choice in television, music, books, all means business can be successfully done in a smaller niche market.
• Another example is in the music industry.  65,000 albums were released in 2005.  Wal-Mart, the nation’s largest music retailer, carried around 700 of them. Rhapsody, an online music source, made nearly all of these songs available.
• Ditto for NetFlix over Blockbuster’s stores.
• Each year over the past 3 years has shown an increase in music, video, and books sales in niche markets — in the long tail — and a comparative reduction in the hit market.
• WorldCat and ILL make our library circulations less hit-driven, too — easy access to more choice.
• Amazon’s interface that offers out-of-print, used as well as new titles (and, with a plug-in from GreaseMonkey & others, access to library holdings and even shelf status, too) is meeting the needs of those whose interests are in this “long tail.”

Here are Anderson’s five long-tail lessons:

1. Don’t confuse limited distribution with shared taste.
2. Everyone deviates from the mainstream somewhere.
3. One size no longer fits all.
4. The best stuff isn’t necessarily at the top.
5. Mass market is becoming a mass of niches.

To read more, find The Long Tail:  Why the Future of Business is Selling Less of More,  by Chris Anderson (New York: Hyperion, 2006).